The Evolution of Dark Social: Correcting Attribution in the Mobile App Age

Over the past few years, Internet traffic has seen major changes. As smartphones become more ubiquitous, more and more people are spending a significant amount of time on the web on mobile devices, and in particular, via mobile applications. In October, more than half of the time Internet users spent online was via mobile and tablet applications.

With the rise in mobile application traffic, there has been a parallel increase in unattributed traffic to articles on the web—a bucket of traffic referred to as dark social. This category of traffic encompasses not only the visitors who enter a URL directly, but also those who click on links from email, instant messaging, and many mobile and desktop applications. Unattributed traffic can also result from a number of technical issues that cause referrer information to be omitted from a known traffic source. The lack of clear attribution for this traffic is a big problem: for most domains on our network, dark social accounts for 20% to 40% of overall external traffic to articles. Because of the popularity of mobile applications, the percentage of dark social traffic among mobile users is even higher.

Fortunately, the problem of dark social is becoming more widely acknowledged throughout the industry. Individual domains have long tried to manually alleviate the problem by including tracking tags and custom URLs on their social content, but are increasingly looking for additional tools to confront the problem head on. Analytics providers continue to refine their offerings and take a leading role in driving the conversation. Major referrer sources are doing more to ensure that their traffic is properly acknowledged. We’ll take a look at some of these developments.

One way of getting a handle on this attribution problem is to look carefully at traffic patterns among the articles on your site. For a large majority of the articles we have looked at, dark social traffic closely correlates in time with other attribution sources. For instance, several of the most popular mobile applications for Reddit do not pass referrer information. Consequentially, when we see spikes in Reddit-based traffic on desktop, we tend to see a corresponding spike of dark social traffic on mobile. This suggests that a large portion of dark social traffic is really just misattribution of known referrers. As a result, for individual articles, you can explicitly attribute much of this traffic to the correct sources.

Chartbeat is now leveraging user agent profiles to disambiguate a significant chunk of dark social mobile application traffic. Many major mobile applications such as Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, Drudge Report, and Flipboard set a tag in the user agent to identify the application. For example, in the following user agent, the tag “[FBAN/FBIOS…]” identifies the use of the Facebook application on iOS:

Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 8_1_2 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/600.1.4 (KHTML, like Gecko) Mobile/12B440 [FBAN/ FBIOS;FBAV/21.0.0.25.14;FBBV/6017145;FBDV/ iPhone7,2;FBMD/iPhone;FBSN/iPhone OS;FBSV/8.1.2;FBSS/2; FBCR/AT&T;FBID/phone;FBLC/ en_US;FBOP/5]

In many cases, we saw an immediate difference after Chartbeat started capturing missing referrers for these user agent-tagged mobile applications. For instance, we saw the traffic attributed to mobile Facebook use jump as much as 40% from previously misattributed dark social traffic.

Several large sites have also made recent efforts to try to pass along referrer information more of the time. In early 2014, Yahoo made a sitewide conversion to use HTTPS instead of HTTP by default, causing referrer data to be dropped. Recently, however, we have observed changes from the Yahoo site that now allow the referrer to be passed for both Yahoo Search and Yahoo News. Facebook also recently announced that it fixed a bug that was causing referrer data to get lost on outgoing mobile application clicks. This fix is particularly notable because of how much traffic originates from the social network.

We can see the results of these changes across our network. Figure 1 shows how the share of dark social traffic has evolved over the second half of 2014. While dark social on desktop is relatively stable, we can see a significant drop in dark social for both mobile and tablet devices in November, concurrent with the Facebook fix. (We also see a corresponding rise in Facebook traffic.)

dark-social-share-of-traffic-by-referrer

As more sites pay closer attention to the analytics needs of its publishers and as more mobile applications pass referrer information or user agent identification, perhaps we can make further inroads into the problem of missing attribution. Still, even with the most recent efforts, dark social share remains at a third of external traffic. We still see close time series correlations for major drivers of traffic such as Facebook and Reddit. It is apparent that we’ve made strong progress in mitigating dark social traffic on mobile and tablet devices; but as a share of traffic, dark social on mobile is still significantly higher than dark social on desktop. Unfortunately, we can’t give up on tracking codes and custom URLs quite yet.


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